Overview
Milwaukee Brewers — season-to-date trends.
Last game: Sep 27
Form Rating
67.9
Recency-weighted power score, 50 = league average. Season-long trend below, weighted toward the last 15–20 games.
Elo Rating
#1 of 30 in MLB
1583
Opponent-adjusted power rating, 1500 = league average. Full-league (all 30 teams), home-field advantage & margin of victory factored in.
Form vs Elo
Two different power ratings, computed two different ways — EWMA-based Form Rating vs opponent-adjusted Elo. When they diverge, one model is picking up on something the other isn't.
Record
103-58
+220 run diff · 64.0% win rate
NL Central
1st
103-59, leading the division
Streak
W5
Consecutive results, most recent first
Home / Road Split
Home
55-26
+166 run diff · 67.9% win rate
Road
48-32
+54 run diff · 60.0% win rate
Notes
hot
Form Rating climbing
Up 11.8 points over the last 15 games, now 67.9.
Hitting below its contact quality
Actual wOBA has trailed xwOBA by 40 points over the last 15 games — batted-ball luck says it should turn.
hot
Hitting in the clutch
wOBA with runners in scoring position has outpaced bases-empty wOBA by 70 points over the last 15 games.
Model Calibration
Every Brewers game this season, bucketed by the Elo model's pre-game win probability — dot size is sample count. A well-calibrated model sits on the diagonal; above it means the model underrated the Brewers in that bucket, below means it overrated them.
Predicted vs Actual
94/162 correct (58%) this season