Overview
Milwaukee Brewers — season-to-date trends.
Last game: Sep 2
Form Rating
61.0
Recency-weighted power score, 50 = league average. Season-long trend below, weighted toward the last 15–20 games.
Elo Rating
#1 of 30 in MLB
1567
Opponent-adjusted power rating, 1500 = league average. Full-league (all 30 teams), home-field advantage & margin of victory factored in.
Form vs Elo
Two different power ratings, computed two different ways — EWMA-based Form Rating vs opponent-adjusted Elo. When they diverge, one model is picking up on something the other isn't.
Record
87-52
+178 run diff · 62.6% win rate
NL Central
1st
87-53, leading the division
Streak
W2
Consecutive results, most recent first
Home / Road Split
Home
47-25
+132 run diff · 65.3% win rate
Road
40-27
+46 run diff · 59.7% win rate
Notes
hot
Form Rating climbing
Up 6.6 points over the last 15 games, now 61.0.
neutral
Bullpen outpitching the rotation
Bullpen ERA (2.15) is running 3.06 runs better than the rotation (5.21) over the last 15 games.
Model Calibration
Every Brewers game this season, bucketed by the Elo model's pre-game win probability — dot size is sample count. A well-calibrated model sits on the diagonal; above it means the model underrated the Brewers in that bucket, below means it overrated them.
Predicted vs Actual
78/140 correct (56%) this season